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f = fraction of bankroll b = decimal odds - 1 p = probability of winning q = probability of losing
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Advanced Strategies
9 min read
3/15/2025
Value Betting: How to Find Value
Learn to identify positive value bets and maximize profits.
by Andrea Conte
Table of Contents
Value betting is the fundamental strategy for long-term success in sports betting.
What is Value Betting
A bet has value when the real probability of an event is greater than the implied probability in the odds offered by the bookmaker.
How to Calculate Real Probabilities
Statistical Analysis
Identifying Value Odds
Odds Comparison
Use comparators to find the best available odds.
Odds Movement
Observe how odds change over time.
Value Betting Management
Kelly Criterion
Formula to calculate optimal bet amount:
Formula
f = (bp - q) / b
Where:
Common Mistakes
Overconfidence
Don't overestimate your prediction abilities.
Short-term Thinking
Value betting works long-term.
Value Betting Tools
Specialized Software
🛠️ Professional Tools
Use specialized software for odds analysis, value betting calculators and bankroll management tools to optimize your performance.
Conclusion
Value betting requires discipline, analysis and patience. It's the only sustainable way to beat bookmakers in the long run.
Topics covered:value bettingstrategiesanalysis
Tags:value bettingstrategiesanalysis